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ADP Employment Report: Solid Job Growth Gathers Steam

Private-sector employment increased by 217,000 from January to February on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report released today. The estimated change of employment from December 2010 to January 2011 was revised up to 189,000 from the previously reported increase of 187,000. This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests continued solid growth of nonfarm private employment early in 2011. The recent pattern of rising employment gains since the middle of last year was reinforced by today’s report, as the average gain from December through February (217,000) is well above the average gain over the prior six months (63,000).

The fears of a jobless recovery may be receding but the US economy has a long way to go before pre-recession employment levels are achieved. As we stated previously the economy needs to create over 200,000 jobs per month for 48 consecutive months to achieve pre-recession employment levels. The six month average of 63,000 is still well below the required rate of job creation for a robust recovery to occur.  The Unemployment Rate still exceeds 9%.

The February report is encouraging because it points to an accelerating pace of job creation. The post Christmas season employment surge represents a 30,000 job gain over January’s strong report that triples the six month moving average. The service sector accounted for over 200,000 of the job gains. The manufacturing and goods producing sector combined to create 35,000 jobs. Construction continues to mirror the moribund housing market shedding an additional 9,000 jobs during the month. The construction industry has lost over 2.1 million jobs since its peak in 2008.

The robust recovery in the service sector is welcomed but sustainable economic growth can only be achieved by a robust turn around in the goods producing and manufacturing sectors. Service sector jobs offer lower wages, tend to be highly correlated to retail consumer spending and positions are often transient in nature. Small and Mid-Sized Enterprises (SME) is where the highest concentration of service jobs are created and the employment figures bear that out with SMEs accounting for over 204,000 jobs created during the month of February.

Large businesses added 13,000 jobs during the month of February. The balance sheets of large corporations are strong. The great recession provided large corporates an opportunity to rationalize their business franchise with layoffs, consolidations and prudent cost management. Benign inflation, global presence, outsourcing, low cost of capital and strong equity markets created ideal conditions for profitability and an improved capital structure. The balance sheets of large corporations are flush with $1 trillion in cash and it appears that the large corporates are deploying this capital resource into non-job creating initiatives.

The restructuring of the economy continues. The Federal stimulus program directed massive funds to support fiscally troubled state and local government budgets. The Federal Stimulus Program was a critical factor that help to stabilize local government workforce levels. The expiration of the Federal stimulus program is forcing state and local governments into draconian measures to balance budgets. Government employment levels are being dramatically pared back to maintain fiscal stability. Public service workers unions are under severe pressure to defend employment, compensation and benefits of workers in an increasingly conservative political climate that insists on fiscal conservatism and is highly adverse to any tax increase.

The elimination of government jobs, the expiration of unemployment funds coupled with rising interest rates, energy and commodity prices will drain significant buying power from the economy and create additional headwinds for the recovery.

Macroeconomic Factors

The principal macroeconomic factors confronting the economy are the continued high unemployment rate, weakness in the housing market, tax policy and deepening fiscal crisis of state, local and federal governments. The Tea Party tax rebellion has returned congress to Republican control and will encourage the federal government to pursue fiscally conservative policies that will dramatically cut federal spending and taxes for the small businesses and the middle class. In the short term, spending cuts in federal programs will result in layoffs, and cuts in entitlement programs will remove purchasing power from the demand side of the market. It is believed that the tax cuts to businesses will provide the necessary incentive for SME’s to invest capital surpluses back into the company to stimulate job creation.

The growing uncertainty in the Middle East and North Africa is a significant political risk factor. The expansion of political instability in the Gulf Region particularly Iran, Egypt and Saudi Arabia; a protracted civil war in Libya or a reignited regional conflict involving Israel would have a dramatic impact on oil markets; sparking a rise in commodity prices and interest rates placing additional stress on economic recovery.

Political uncertainty tends to heighten risk aversion in credit markets. The financial rescue of banks with generous capital infusions and accommodating monetary policies from sovereign governments has buttressed the profitability and capital position of banks. Regulatory uncertainty of Basel III, Dodd-Frank, and the continued rationalization of the commercial banking system and continued concern about the quality of credit portfolios continue to curtail availability of credit for SME lending. Governments are encouraging banks to lend more aggressively but banks continue to exercise extreme caution in making loans to financially stressed and capital starved SMEs.

Highlights of the ADP Report for February include:

Private sector employment increased by 217,000

Employment in the service-providing sector rose 202,000

Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 15,000

Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 20,000

Construction employment declined 9,000

Large businesses with 500 or more workers declined 2,000

Medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers increased 24,000

Employment among small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, increased 21,000

Overview of Numbers

The 202,000 jobs created by the SME sectors represents over 90% of new job creation. Large businesses comprise approximately 20% of the private sector employment and continues to underperform SMEs in post recession job creation. The strong growth of service sector though welcomed continues to mask the under performance of the manufacturing sector. The 11 million manufacturing jobs comprise approximately 10% of the private sector US workforce. The 20 thousand jobs created during February accounted for 10% of new jobs. Considering the severely distressed condition and capacity utilization of the sector and the favorable conditions for export markets and cost of capital the job growth of the sector appears extremely weak. The US economy is still in search of a driver. The automotive manufacturers have returned to profitability due to global sales in Latin America and China with a large portion of the manufacturing done in local oversea markets.

The stock market continues to perform well. The Fed is optimistic that the QE2 initiative will allay bankers credit risk concerns and ease lending restrictions to SMEs. A projected GDP growth rate of 3% appears to be an achievable goal. The danger of a double dip recession is receding but severe geopolitical risk factors continue to keep the possibility alive.

Interest rates have been at historic lows for two years and will begin to notch upward as central bankers continue to manage growth with a mix of inflation and higher costs of capital. The stability of the euro and the EU’s sovereign debt crisis will remain a concern and put upward pressure on interest rates and the dollar.

As the price of commodities and food spikes higher the potential of civil unrest and political instability in emerging markets of Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America grows. Some even suggest this instability may touch China.

The balance sheets of large corporate entities remain flush with cash. The availability of distressed assets and volatile markets will encourage corporate treasurers to put that capital to work to capitalize on emerging opportunities. The day of the lazy corporate balance sheet is over.

Solutions from Sum2

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For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.

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Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, SME, political

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March 3, 2011 Posted by | ADP, banking, Basel II, commercial, commodities, credit, Credit Redi, economics, government, labor relations, manufacturing, political risk, politics, recession, regulatory, risk management, small business, SME, social unrest, Sum2, Treasury, unemployment, unions, US dollar | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

ADP Report: Job Creation Proceeds At Turtle Pace

Slow and steady may win the race but the pace of job creation by the US economy  continues to move along at turtle speed.  For the 20 million unemployed and underemployed people the pace of job creation remains painfully slow as revealed by ADP ‘s National Employment Report for October. During the month, private sector employment increased by 43,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. ADP also revised its employment report for September stating that the economy lost only 2,000 jobs rather then the 39,000 it had previously reported.  Following ADP’s upward revision the private sector has produced 41,000 new jobs during the past 61 days.  For the worlds leading economy with a GDP of almost $15 trillion the lackluster growth in job creation is a troubling indicator of an anemic jobless economic recovery.

The October report arrests the September decline in job growth that reversed  seven consecutive months of positive job creation.  During that time the economy averaged employment gains of 34,000 new private sector jobs per month. This rate of job creation does little to reduce the negative overhang  a 10% unemployment rate is having on economic  growth.   A stabilized and expanding labor market is a key ingredient for a sustained economic recovery. Over the past three years the economy lost over 9 million jobs. For a robust recovery to occur the economy needs to create 200,000 jobs per month for the next four years to return the job market to its pre-recession levels.

As we reported last month the expiration of the Federal stimulus program will force state and local governments to layoff  workers.  Sluggish job creation continues to pressure depleted unemployment funds and the expiration of benefits for many of the unemployed is draining buying power from the economy.

Soft consumer demand  threatens retailers and leisure industry segments and has a spillover effect  on the housing market.  Joblessness is a principal factor in mortgage defaults and contributes to the growing inventory of foreclosed properties held by banks.  The ADP report indicates that during October the US economy shed an additional 23,000 construction jobs. It is estimated that it will take 24 months for the housing market to absorb the existing inventory of foreclosed properties. A  healthy turnaround in the construction  industry will  move in step with the improvement in the housing market conditions.

A sustained recovery will require sector leadership by Small and Mid-Size Enterprises (SME)  as principal drivers of job creation.   SME’s  sector strength has traditionally been in the construction, specialty retail, leisure and service sectors.  Among these segments  only the services sector continues to be a consistent driver for job creation.

Macroeconomic Factors

The principal macroeconomic factors impairing recovery are the continued high unemployment rate, weakness in the housing market, tax policy and deepening fiscal crisis of state, local and federal governments.   The results of this weeks mid-term election and the return of congress to Republican control will encourage the federal government to pursue fiscally conservative policies that will dramatically cut spending and taxes for the small businesses and the middle class.  In the short term spending cuts in federal programs will result in layoffs and cuts in entitlement programs will remove purchasing power from the demand side of the market.  It is believed that the tax cuts to businesses will provide the necessary incentive for SME’s to invest capital surpluses back into the company to stimulate job creation.

Highlights of the ADP Report for October include:

Private sector employment increased by 43,000

Employment in the service-providing sector rose 77,000

Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 34,000

Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 12,000

Construction employment declined 23,000

Large businesses with 500 or more workers declined 2,000

Medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers increased 24,000

Employment among small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, increased 21,000

Overview of Numbers

The 45,000 jobs created by the SME sectors reverses a decline from September and offsets the 2,000 job cuts by large companies.  The strong growth of service sector  jobs is a positive development.  However the continued softness of goods producing segments and manufacturing continues to indicate the continued decline of  US industrial capacity.  The strong rebound in services  may be the result of the expanding practice of companies utilizing outside contractors to fill human capital requirements.  These types of jobs may mask an underemployed and  transient labor pool forced to accept work at  lower wage scales.

The stock market continues to perform well.  Yesterdays QE2 initiative by the Fed to pump $600 billion into the banking system may allay bankers credit risk concerns and ease lending restrictions to capital starved SME’s.  Despite a projected GDP growth rate of 2%, ADP’s employment figures indicates that the economy continues to dwell at the bottom of an extreme down economic cycle. The danger of a double dip recession still lurks as a remote possibility.  Interest rates remain at historic lows and inflation continues to be benign but its danger grows as a weak dollar continues to flounder forcing oil prices to climb while government debt levels continue to spiral upward.  The balance sheets of large corporate entities remain flush with cash.  Analysts estimate that over $1 Trillion in cash swells corporate treasuries remaining underemployed on lazy corporate balance sheets.  The low interest rate environment  has allowed companies to pursue  deleveraging strategies  considerably strengthening the capital structure of corporate America.  To the dismay of politicians and the unemployed,  economists speculate that deployment of this cash is still a few quarters away from finding its way into the real economy.

Solutions from Sum2

Sum2 offers SME’s the Profit|Optimizer to help them manage risk, devise recovery strategies and make better informed capital allocation decisions.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.

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Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, SME

November 5, 2010 Posted by | ADP, banking, business, economics, manufacturing, Profit|Optimizer, SME, unemployment | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

ADP Jobs Report: Reversal of Fortune

ADP has released its National Employment Report for September. During the month, private sector employment decreased by 39,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. After an upward revision of 10,000 new jobs created for August, the September numbers are a reversal from employment trends that seemed to be stabilizing by arresting two years of employment declines. For seven consecutive moths the economy was creating average employment gains of 34,000 private sector jobs. The September numbers reverses that trend and raises concern about the strength of the economic recovery.

A stabilized labor market is a key ingredient to a sustained economic recovery. Over the past three years the economy lost over 9 million jobs. For a robust recovery to occur the economy needs to create 200,000 jobs per month for the next four years to return the job market to its pre-recession levels.

The Federal stimulus program that directed funds to state and local governments to help stem layoffs has now expired. This will result in further belt tightening by local government agencies and will result in layoffs of employees to meet the fiscal restraint imposed by the poor economy.  This will exacerbate the unemployment problem and further impede the buying power and tax revenues.  This will continue to hurt the retail industry and local governments sales tax receipts.

The reduction in the government work force is symptomatic of the reconfiguration of the economy. During the past decade government employment increased dramatically. Its pairing down will put added pressure on the private sector to incubate new industries to drive the recovery. Manufacturing and the growth industries of the past decade will be hard pressed to create the level of job creation a robust recovery requires.

The ADP report indicates that since its peak in January of 2007, construction employment has lost 2,297,000 jobs. Construction trades along with credit marketing, retailing, community banking and services supporting these sectors have been dramatically weakened and downsized in the wake of the recession. The private sector led by small and mid-size enterprises (SME) will need to incubate growth industries to create jobs and lead the country out of the doldrums of the flailing economic recovery.

Macroeconomic Factors

The principal macroeconomic factors impairing recovery are the continued high unemployment rate, continued weakness in the housing market, persistent deflation concerns, tax policy and deepening fiscal crisis of state, local and federal governments.  The economic impact of the Gulf oil spill was immediate and dramatic to the local aqua-cultural industries, fishing and regional tourist industries. The long term effects of the spill on the ecological communities of the Gulf is yet to be determined.  The geopolitical uncertainty of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, persistent worries about Iran’s nuclear program and the sovereign debt crisis of the weaker EU member states are persistent concerns weighing on capital market participants.

Highlights of the ADP Report for September include:

Estimates non-farm private employment in the service-providing sector decreased by 39,000.

Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 45,000

Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 17,000

Construction employment declined 28,000

Employment in the services sector rose 6,000.

Large businesses with 500 or more workers declined 11,000

Medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers declined 14,000

Employment among small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, declined 14,000

Overview of Numbers

Job loss in the SME sector is troubling. SMEs are the backbone of the construction and retail industries and the continued weakness of these sectors weighs on their ability to become a driver of consistent job growth. The continued deterioration of the financial health of SMEs and their ability to marshal resources from depleted balance sheets and limited credit lines may be impairing the ability to mount an effective response to the dire economic conditions.

Despite the backdrop of the stock markets stellar performance during September, ADP’s employment figures indicates that the economy continues to dwell at the bottom of an extreme down economic cycle. The danger of a double dip recession still lurks as a possibility.  The balance sheets of large corporate entities are flush with cash.  Some analysts estimate that over $1 Trillion in cash swells corporate coffers.  Some economists speculate that deployment this cash is critical to the economic upturn and still a few quarters away from finding its way into the real economy.

Solutions from Sum2

Sum2 offers SME’s the Profit|Optimizer to help them manage risk, devise recovery strategies and make better informed capital allocation decisions.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.

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Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, SME

October 7, 2010 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

NFIB Index: Small Business Optimism Improves

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) has just released the Small Business Economic Trends Report for June 2010. The report published since 1973 measures small business sentiment on numerous economic and business factors that confront small businesses.

This months report indicates that small business optimism continues to improve.  The NFIB index rose 1.6 points to 92.2 recording the highest level of the index since September of 2008.

During the month seven of the 10 index components rose, with job creation and capital expenditure plans recording minuscule increases.  The Index rose above the 90 level for the first time in 21 months ending the longest period of negative sentiment in the four decade history of the index.

Though seven of the ten index components rose, small business job creation remains weak.  The  hemorrhaging  of job losses has abated employment opportunities with small businesses is not materializing.  Employment is a critical component of the Index and is understood as an important sign of economic recovery.  During the month small businesses continued to layoff workers registering a negative .5 per respondent.   This records the weakest reading for small business employment for the past three months.  The NFIB Index corroborates employment trends recently reported by ADP’s National Employment Report and the Department of Labor.  The small business sector is not contributing to private sector employment growth.  This is a troubling concern because it is widely understood that small businesses need to be a leading driver for job creation to sustain economic recovery.  As we stated last month, historically small businesses have been the major driver in job creation following recessions.  The poor job creation reading by the index  continues to be a  contra indicator of economic recovery. Small business owners are by nature and temperament optimistic and the report indicates that small businesses are still very cautious about allocation capital for jobs to meet improving business conditions.

Highlights of the Report:

  • Jobs:   9% percent of respondents reported unfilled job openings. Over the next three months, 7 % plan to reduce employment and 14 % plan to create new jobs.
  • Credit:  32% of respondents looking for financing report difficulties in arranging credit.  13% reported loans harder to get than in their last attempt. Overall, 92% of the owners reported all their credit needs met.
  • Profits: 17%of respondents reported higher earnings while 49% of respondents reported a decline in profits.
  • Prices:   14% reported raising average selling prices, and 28% reported average price reductions.
  • Capital Spending:  A net 20% of respondents planned to make a capital expenditure within the next three months, 5% planned a facilities expansion and a net 8% expect business conditions to improve over the next six months.
  • Sales: 23% of all owners reported higher sales while 38% reported lower sales.

Overview of the Report

The NFIB Optimism Index records that small business sentiment and business conditions are improving  but hint that small businesses are not fully participating in a vibrant economic recovery story.  The survey indicates that small businesses remain reluctant to create new jobs.  Until this improves, demand in the larger economy and stimulation drivers for small business growth will remain weak.

Earnings and capital expenditures tend to correlate in the absence of  subdued credit channels.  More businesses are required to self fund expansion initiatives and capital expenditures.  With earnings down small businesses spending will remain weak creating yet another headwind to market demand for goods and services.

As government stimulus programs come to a close it is crucial that small and mid-sized businesses (SME) become a lead driver in the recovery.   Though the NFIB index indicates that business conditions and sentiment is improving the financial health and overall psychology of the sector seems ambivalent to its critical role in economic recovery scenarios.

About the NFIB Index

Components of the Optimism Index include: Labor Markets, Capital Spending, Inventory and Sales, Inflation, Profits and Wages and Credit Markets.  This months survey recorded the responses of 823 NFIB members and concluded May 31.

The NFIB Research Foundation has collected Small Business Economic Trends Data with Quarterly surveys since 1973 and monthly surveys since1986. The sample is drawn from the membership files of the NFIB.

The NFIB Report can be downloaded from the Sum2 website. NFIB Optimism Index

Solutions from Sum2

Sum2 offers risk management and opportunity discovery tools to SME’s.  The Profit|Optimizer helps SME’s manage risk, devise recovery strategies and make better informed capital allocation decisions.

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Risk: SME, small business, economic recovery, NFIB

June 9, 2010 Posted by | economics, NFIB, Profit|Optimizer, recession, risk management, small business, SME, unemployment | , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

ADP Reports Third Consecutive Month of Job Gains

ADP has released its National Employment Report for May.   Non-farm private employment increased 55,000 during  the month on a seasonally adjusted basis.   ADP also reported an upward revision of 33,000 jobs for March, bringing the number of new jobs created during the month to 65,000.  The three consecutive net employment gains reported by ADP indicates that while the number of new job creation remains modest, positive momentum is developing.

A stabilized labor market is a key ingredient to a sustained economic recovery.  The economy lost over 9 million jobs during the recession and recovery will require the creation of 200,000 new jobs per month for the next 4 years to get back to pre-recession employment levels.  Last years massive Federal stimulus programs directed funds to state and local governments to help stem layoffs. The expiration of those programs will force fiscally challenged local governments to resort to austerity measures that will require the public sector to trim jobs.

Macroeconomic factors continue to be challenging the economic recovery.  The sovereign fiscal crisis in Europe, slowing growth in China, tepid credit markets and political uncertainty counterbalance the positive effects of a stabilizing housing market, low interest rates and benign  inflation.

The economic impact of the Gulf oil spill will not be confined to the region. The local aqua-cultural industries, fishing and tourism to the region has been immediately impacted by the spill.  A prolonged duration of the event will have a profound impact on the economies of the entire Caribbean. The economies and fiscal stability of American cities such as Pensacola, Mobile, Tampa,  New Orleans and Key West are directly threatened by the unfolding events.  Cities and regions along the Texas Coast and Mexico also remain remain at risk and share the unfortunate distinction of being in the probability cross hairs of suffering extreme toxic damage as a result of a hurricane.  Shipping lanes and the closure of ports due to oil contamination could impact America’s vital agricultural industry.  The moratorium on deep water drilling has placed pressure on the oils services sector and may impact the industries long term financial health.   The impact on the price of oil and refined petroleum products remains to be seen.

Highlights of the ADP  report include:

Estimates non-farm private employment in the service-providing sector increased by 55,000.

Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 23,000

Employment in the manufacturing sector rose 15,000

Employment in the services sector rose 78,000.

Large businesses with 500 or more workers  added 3,000 jobs

Medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers increased by 39,000

Employment among small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, increased by 13,000

Overview of Numbers

The net gain of 52,000 jobs in the small and mid-sized enterprise (SME) sector, compared to the creation of 3,000 jobs in large enterprises is a telling statistic about the changing topology of the US job market.   During the past decade, a large proportion of job growth occurred in the public and small mid-size enterprises (SME) sector.  Large businesses have led the way in implementing lean enterprises and have outsourced and off shored many jobs and business functions to accomplish this. Job creation by SME’s during the past month represented over 90% of new job creation.  America’s reinvention and economic renaissance must be led by the SME sector.  It is vital that capital formation initiatives and credit availability is positioned to foster the growth and development of the SME sector.

This months ADP report is an indication that the US economy continues at the bottom of an extreme down economic cycle.  The danger of a double dip recession unfortunately still lurks as a possibility.  The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the potential of market contagion from EU credit distress, China’s slowdown and the anemic rate of job creation in the wake of massive government expenditures and budget deficits presents continuing challenges to a sustained and robust recovery in the United States.

Solutions from Sum2

Sum2 offers SME’s the Profit|Optimizer to help them manage risk, devise recovery strategies and make better informed capital allocation decisions.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.

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Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, SME

June 3, 2010 Posted by | ADP, Profit|Optimizer, risk management, Sum2, unemployment | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

ADP Reports Weak Job Growth

ADP has released its National Employment Report for April.   Non-farm private employment increased 32,000 during  the month on a seasonally adjusted basis.   ADP also reported an upward revision of 19,000 jobs for March.  The two consecutive net employment gains reported by ADP indicates that job loss may have bottomed and the slim increase in employment confirms a positive trend is underway.     The massive governmental intervention to recapitalize the banking sector and initiate stimulus programs have stabilized the economy.  The abatement of extreme risk aversion in the credit markets, favorable interest rates, improving consumer sentiment, low inflation and the dramatic rebound in securities markets are all positive growth drivers for the economy.

Highlights of the ADP  report include:

Estimates non-farm private employment in the service-providing sector increased by 50,000.

Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 18,000.

Employment in the manufacturing sector rose for the third consecutive month by 29,000 jobs.

Employment in the construction sector dropped by 49,000.

Large businesses with 500 or more workers  added 14,000 jobs

Medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers increased by 17,000.

Employment among small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, increased by 1,000 in April.

Employment in the financial services sector dropped 14,000, resulting in over three years of consecutive monthly
declines.

Overview of Numbers

The net gain of 32,000 jobs for the massive US economy is an admittedly weak gain for an economy that has shed 11 million jobs but it is an indication that the economy is stabilizing.

The correlation of the loss of jobs in construction and financial services is an indication of a US economy that continues to transition its dependency on residential and commercial real estate development.  The difficult conditions in the commercial and residential real estate market will continue as excess inventories brought on by high foreclosure rates continue to be worked off.   As the ADP report highlights construction employment has declined for thirty-nine consecutive months, bringing the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 2,159,000.  Its clear that the US economy has lost two critical recovery drivers.

Soft conditions in the construction sector weighs heavily on small business job creation.  Most contractors are small businesses and with the anemic rate of new housing construction small business job creation will continue to be soft.

Specialty retail is another large component of the small business market.  Improving consumer sentiment will help this sector.  However small retailers have suffered massive business closures during the recession.  A robust recovery in this sector will not commence until commercial lending for start ups and business expansion becomes more readily available from the banks.

The report also indicates that the goods producing sector of small businesses shed 24,000 jobs during the month  to continue the trend in the deterioration of small manufactures.  This decline was offset by a 25,000 gain in service based jobs.  The  growth of the service sector of the US economy continues at the expense of the manufacturing sector.  The growth of small business service sector indicates that businesses continue to managed fixed costs of their business by outsourcing various services.

This ADP report is a positive indication that we may be at a bottom of the economic cycle.  Bottoms don’t mean that things are improving they indicate that conditions are not worsening.  The economic recovery is still confronted with headwinds.  The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, the economic and growing political instability of EU countries and the cooling off of the Chinese economy may present some challenges to a sustained and robust recovery in the United States.

Solutions from Sum2

Sum2 advocates the establishment of an SME Bank to sustain long term economic growth.  Sum2 offers SME’s the Profit|Optimizer to help them manage risk, devise recovery strategies and make better informed capital allocation decisions.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.

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Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, SME

May 5, 2010 Posted by | ADP, banking, credit, manufacturing, real estate, recession, small business, SME, Uncategorized, unemployment | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

New Day Rising: ADP Employment Report

Rising Sun Taft McWhorter

ADP has released its National Employment Report for January.   Non-farm private employment decreased 22,000 during  the month on a seasonally adjusted basis.   The ADP report indicates that job loss is decelerating.   Many believe that the massive governmental intervention to recapitalize the banking sector and stimulus programs extending unemployment benefits and the provision of funding aid to state governments are key elements that are helping to stabilize the economy.

Highlights of the ADP  report include:

January’s ADP Report estimates non-farm private employment in the service-providing sector increased by 38,000, the second consecutive monthly increase.

Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 60,000, with employment in the manufacturing sector dropping 25,000.

The employment decline in the manufacturing sector was the lowest since January of 2008.

Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline by 19,000 while small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, declined 12,000.

Employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 9,000, the first increase in employment since January of 2008.

Employment in the financial services sector dropped 16,000.

Construction employment dropped 37,000. This drop marks the third straight year of consecutive monthly employment declines and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,804,000.

Sum2 advocates the establishment of an SME Bank to sustain long term economic growth.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.

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Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, political

February 3, 2010 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

ADP Reports 250,000 More Jobs Lost in September

job-loss-absoluteADP has released its National Employment Report for September   Nonfarm private employment decreased 254,000 during  the month on a seasonally adjusted basis.   The ADP report indicates that job loss continues to decelerate.  Though slowing, the unemployment rate continues to creep higher.  The impact of the loss of  a quarter of a million jobs is an indication that economic recovery remains sluggish and the US has a long way to go before the benefits of wide spread sustainable growth are realized.

The evaporation of jobs will continue to hinder a broad recovery in the housing market.  Yesterday I heard a speaker claim that approximately 25% of homes in Florida are in foreclosure or are behind in their mortgage payments.  It is an incredible statistic that speaks volumes about the acute systemic problems of the service based, boom/bust Florida economy.

Highlights of the ADP  report include:

Employment from July to August was revised from a decline of 298,000 to a decline of 277,000

September’s employment decline was the smallest since July of 2008

Employment losses have diminished significantly over the last two quarters

Nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 103,000

Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 151,000

Employment in the manufacturing sector dropped 74,000

Employment with large businesses with 500 or more workers declined  by 61,000

Employment with medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 93,000

Employment among small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, declined 100,000

Employment losses among small-size businesses have diminished in each of the last six months

Construction employment dropped 73,000. This was its thirty-second consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,632,000.

Employment in the financial services sector dropped 19,000, the twenty-second consecutive monthly decline.

Sum2 advocates the establishment of an SME Bank adoption of The Hamilton Plan to address the recession.

For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.

You Tube Video: The Silhouettes, Get A Job

Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, political

September 30, 2009 Posted by | banking, commerce, economics, Hamilton Plan, manufacturing, recession, SME, Sum2, sustainability, unemployment | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Job Loss Decelerating?

ADP has released its  National Employment Report for July reporting a 371,000 decrease in non-farm private sector jobs.  ADP has also revised its numbers for May from a decline of 473,000 to a decline of 463,000.

The ADP report states, July’s employment decline was the smallest since October of 2008.  As a trailing economic indicator, unemployment is expected to continue to rise for the next few months.  As the recession recedes and the  economic recovery takes hold employment is likely to decline for at least several more months, albeit at a diminishing rate.

Highlights of the report include:

The report estimates non-farm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 202,000.

Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 169,000, with employment in the manufacturing sector dropping 99,000, its smallest monthly decline since September of 2008.

Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline by 74,000, while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 159,000.

Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 138,000.  Since reaching peak employment in January 2008, small-size businesses have shed nearly 2.4 million jobs.

In June, construction employment dropped 64,000.  This was its thirtieth consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,483,000.

Employment in the financial services sector dropped 26,000, the twentieth consecutive monthly decline.

The full report can be accessed here:  ADP National Employment Report

Risk: unemployment, recession

August 5, 2009 Posted by | economics, manufacturing, recession, SME, Uncategorized, unemployment | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Unemployment Driving SME Bankruptcies

unemployment-line-nyc-depressionTwo news items concerning the health of  of the United States economy crossed my desk today.  This morning ADP published its monthly National Employment Report for June.  ADP announced that nonfarm private employment decreased 473,000 from May to June 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Monthly employment losses in April, May, and June averaged 492,000.  That equates to over 1.5 million jobs that were lost over the past 90 days.

The trend indicates that the rate of job losses is slowing; but the massive evaporation of jobs represents a serious erosion in buying power.  The United States is a highly developed consumer oriented economy that is highly dependent on the discretionary buying power of consumers.  Significant loss of jobs and the severe contraction of credit availability are severe headwinds that the US economy must overcome.

In recent years US job growth was fueled by small and mid-size enterprises (SME).  Home based companies, specialty retailers and service oriented companies has fueled economic expansion and job growth.  No more.  The trend has been decidedly reversed due to the evaporation of consumer buying power, credit and capital constraints and other macroeconomic factors that conspire against the limited balance sheets of SMEs.

The USA Today reports, “The first five months of this year have shown a 52% increase in the total number of commercial bankruptcy filings (36,106) compared with the same period last year (23,829), according to the Automated Access to Court Electronic Records. On average thus far in 2009, some 350 commercial enterprises file for bankruptcy daily — an increase of 240% from 2006.”

The two attributes that distinguish the US economic colossus are the work ethic of its people and a deep abiding commitment and belief in a entrepreneurial culture that rewards hard work and risk.  It would seem that these two virtues are under siege and are being stressed to a breaking point due to the depth and pervasiveness of the global recession.  One thing is clear, the indomitable spirit of the American people are being put to the test.  In time this great nation of great people will rise to meet and surmount the challenges posed by this great recession.  It remains to be seen however how this will change the spirit and character of the American psyche and how future generations of countrymen will view the generations that left them with a debt laden legacy.

You Tube Music Video:  George Gershwin, Three Preludes, #2

Risk: work ethic, entrepreneurial spirit, economic recovery, depression

July 1, 2009 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment