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Prognostications and Expostulations for 2010

We’re going out on a limb with this one or given thats its winter we’ll say we’re walking on thin ice.   We’ll gaze into the crystal ball and pontificate on eleven  subject areas for 2010.  With some we hope we will be wrong.  With some we hope we will be right.

1.  Stock Market:  Buoyed by well managed earnings by the large multinational companies in the DOW, principally as a result of cost reduction initiatives and exposure to global markets the Index will finish up 6% and close at 11, 011 on the last trading day of 2010.   Given an inflation rate of 4% investors will realize a 2% gain on equity investments in DOW constituents.  S&P 500 and NASDAQ will be flat gaining 2% for the year.

2.  Iraq War:  The war in Iraq will continue to wind down.  America will scale down its military presence in the country.  Troop levels in the country will approximate 85,000 by the close of 2010.  Though direct American military involvement in conflicts will decline,  Iraq will experience civil unrest as Kurd nationalists, Shiite and Sunni Muslims seek to protect their political and economic interests.

3.  Afghanistan War:  The escalation of America’s military presence in Afghanistan will move the theater of war further into Pakistan.  The Taliban will be satisfied to harass US forces by engaging in a guerrilla war.   Taliban and Al-Qaeda supporters will use the opportunity to increase the level of urban terrorist attacks in the large cities of Pakistan.  Al-Qaeda confederates will seek to reestablish base of support in Somalia, Yemen and ties will begin to emerge in Latin American narco-terror states.

4. Iran: The political situation in Iran will continue to deteriorate.  This is a positive development for regional stability because it will force the ruling regime to cede its nuclear program development initiatives.  Iran will not be able to capitalize on the US draw down in Iraq.  It will become increasingly isolated as Hezbollah and Hamas pursue actions that are less confrontational to Israel in Palestine and Lebanon.   The ruling Caliphate position will weaken due to internal political dissent and external economic pressures.

5.  China:  It will be a year of ultra-nationalism in China.  Its stimulus program that is targeted to internal development will sustain a GDP growth rate of 8%.  China will use this opportunity to strengthen the ideological support of its citizens to fall in line with the national development initiative.  Globally China will continue to expand its interests in Africa and will cull deeper relationships with its Pacific Rim club member Latin America.  China will continue to use US preoccupation with its wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and skirmishes in Yemen and Somalia as an opportunity to expand its global presence with a message of peace and cooperation.

5.  US Mid Term Elections:  Republicans will gain a number of seats in Congress.  The continued soft economic conditions, state and local government fiscal crisis, war weariness and cut back in services and rising expenses will make this a bad year for incumbents and the party in power, namely the democrats.  Sarah Palin will play a large role in supporting anti-government candidates drooling over the prospect of  winning a seat in government.

6.  Recession:  Though the recession may be officially over, high unemployment, home foreclosures and spiking interest rates will hamper a robust recovery.  The end of large government stimulus programs  and the continued decrease in real estate values also present strong headwinds to recovery.  We predict a GDP growth rate of 2% for the US economy.  Outsourcing will abate and a move to reintroduce SME manufacturing  will commence.

7.  Technology:  The new green technology will focus on the development of nuclear power plants.  The clash of the titan’s between Google’s Droid and Apple’s I Phone will dominate tech news during the year.  Lesser skirmishes  between Smart Phones makers or the war of the clones will continue to explode altering the home PC market and continue to change the market paradigm for old line firms like DELL, Microsoft and HP.   SaaS or cloud computing will gain on the back of lean business process initiatives and smart phone application development and processing infrastructure will encourage cottage industries fueling the cloud and making for some new millionaires.  The tension between the creators of content and search and delivery will begin to tilt back toward the content providers.  Litigation involving social networking sites will be filed to create safeguards against  its use  as a tool to control and manipulate behaviors thus threatening civil liberties and privacy rights.

8.  Culture:  The Googlization of civilization will allow individuals to embrace paternal corporatism as a pillar to add efficiency and order to their lives.  Multiculturalism will continue to grow in the US.  However a growing political backlash against it will become more of a prominent theme as Teabaggers agitate for a return to the true values of America.  Electronic arts will make major leaps and bounds as commodification continues to be a driving force in the world of art.  Printed words like books and newspapers will continue to dramatically decline.  Writing, drawing and playing musical instruments skills will  ebb as people prefer to develop digital skill sets.  Texting and Tweeting make for poor practice for extended compositions.

9.  Latin America:  Instability will grow in Latin America as narcodollars continue to undermine political stability in Columbia, Venezuela, Mexico and Panama.   The US will increasingly become involved in the conflicts between petro and narcodollars.  Mexico’s stability will be increasingly undermined by the power and corruptible influence of the drug trade.  China’s influence on the continent will grow.

10. European Union:  The EU will continue to manage itself for stability.  It will yearn to return to its aristocratic roots and will become increasingly conservative.  It will continue to have a complex relationship with the expanding Muslim community.  A call to deeper nationalism will arise out of a growing influence of Islam and the inefficiencies of EC bureaucrats in Belgium.  The EU will continue its union of expediency to counterbalance their distrust of Russia and their distaste for America.

11.  Environmental Justice:  Though awareness continues to grow concerning the need to mount and implement large scale solutions to halt the problem of global climate change;  the political will and resources required to drastically alter the planets current trajectory in growth of carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels remains unaltered.  Social responsible enterprises, small businesses and individuals continue to make a difference.  Eco friendly small businesses, urban farming, capital formation initiatives around renewable  energy  businesses are hopeful signs of a market response to the pressing problem.  China is investing heavily in becoming a market leader out of business savvy and environmental necessity.  Until the great powers of the world can come to some  collective agreement on how to limit , cap or trade carbon credits we’ll have to be content to separate the trash and recycle, reuse and reduce.

You Tube Music Video: Donald Byrd, Stepping Into Tomorrow

Risk: unfulfilled predictions will make me look bad

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January 5, 2010 - Posted by | commerce, environment, manufacturing, sustainability | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

3 Comments »

  1. This is a good compilation of events for the upcoming year. The situation in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan can be better if President Obama chooses too. There can be certain changes made to bring peace and stability in the region. China’s importance has been heavily stated. For some reason India has been forgotten. India too is an emerging global power. Back office for many IT firms. You cannot really rule India out. India and China go hand in hand when IT Outsourcing comes to mind.

    The Latin American Drug trade was something new for me to know more about. I wasn’t aware that its importance made such a global impact.

    All in all well stated.

    Thanks,
    Adam

    Comment by Adam | January 6, 2010 | Reply

    • Dear Adam,

      You are absolutely correct about my failure to mention India. During the past few months i learned a new world Chindia, which is a compilation of China and India used to describe the bipartisan block as a major driver of global growth. Though still important global demand drivers, Chindia internal focus will temper their role as major drivers of global growth during 2010. I realized I did not mention India and don’t mean to slight its importance on the world scene particularly its great contributions in the creation, export, import and formation of intellectual capital assets. India however is not the global player and emerging power that China is. China sits on top of tremendous currency reserves fueled by trade surpluses and has a sizable Sovereign Wealth Fund that it uses as a political tool to leverage its interests and power. India’s considerable socio-political problems borne from its status as the worlds largest democracy limits its ability to act with the sweeping eminent domain China’s ruling party does to organize and govern a population of 1/6th of the worlds citizens. India also has challenges on its border due to the growing instability in Pakistan. This will require lots of India’s attention.

      Black markets and the problem of narco terrorism is at the center of the US’s and the developed worlds geopolitical difficulties. Narcotics and drug trade, weapons, slavery, piracy and underground oil trading pose economic and political threats to global markets and political stability of sovereign states. Thats why sending troops into Afghanistan is a fools journey. Until you can supplant the “tribal” economic infrastructure built on the opium trade in Afghanistan and cocoa leaves in Latin America an antagonistic relationship with established banking and capital markets will continue. The problem calls for and economic and political solution, not military.

      Thanks for your insights.

      Comment by riskrapper | January 6, 2010 | Reply

  2. […] The busiest day of the year was January 6th with 155 views. The most popular post that day was Prognostications and Expostulations for 2010. […]

    Pingback by Sum2llc: 2010 in review « sum2llc | January 2, 2011 | Reply


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