ADP Report: Job Creation Proceeds At Turtle Pace
Slow and steady may win the race but the pace of job creation by the US economy continues to move along at turtle speed. For the 20 million unemployed and underemployed people the pace of job creation remains painfully slow as revealed by ADP ‘s National Employment Report for October. During the month, private sector employment increased by 43,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis. ADP also revised its employment report for September stating that the economy lost only 2,000 jobs rather then the 39,000 it had previously reported. Following ADP’s upward revision the private sector has produced 41,000 new jobs during the past 61 days. For the worlds leading economy with a GDP of almost $15 trillion the lackluster growth in job creation is a troubling indicator of an anemic jobless economic recovery.
The October report arrests the September decline in job growth that reversed seven consecutive months of positive job creation. During that time the economy averaged employment gains of 34,000 new private sector jobs per month. This rate of job creation does little to reduce the negative overhang a 10% unemployment rate is having on economic growth. A stabilized and expanding labor market is a key ingredient for a sustained economic recovery. Over the past three years the economy lost over 9 million jobs. For a robust recovery to occur the economy needs to create 200,000 jobs per month for the next four years to return the job market to its pre-recession levels.
As we reported last month the expiration of the Federal stimulus program will force state and local governments to layoff workers. Sluggish job creation continues to pressure depleted unemployment funds and the expiration of benefits for many of the unemployed is draining buying power from the economy.
Soft consumer demand threatens retailers and leisure industry segments and has a spillover effect on the housing market. Joblessness is a principal factor in mortgage defaults and contributes to the growing inventory of foreclosed properties held by banks. The ADP report indicates that during October the US economy shed an additional 23,000 construction jobs. It is estimated that it will take 24 months for the housing market to absorb the existing inventory of foreclosed properties. A healthy turnaround in the construction industry will move in step with the improvement in the housing market conditions.
A sustained recovery will require sector leadership by Small and Mid-Size Enterprises (SME) as principal drivers of job creation. SME’s sector strength has traditionally been in the construction, specialty retail, leisure and service sectors. Among these segments only the services sector continues to be a consistent driver for job creation.
Macroeconomic Factors
The principal macroeconomic factors impairing recovery are the continued high unemployment rate, weakness in the housing market, tax policy and deepening fiscal crisis of state, local and federal governments. The results of this weeks mid-term election and the return of congress to Republican control will encourage the federal government to pursue fiscally conservative policies that will dramatically cut spending and taxes for the small businesses and the middle class. In the short term spending cuts in federal programs will result in layoffs and cuts in entitlement programs will remove purchasing power from the demand side of the market. It is believed that the tax cuts to businesses will provide the necessary incentive for SME’s to invest capital surpluses back into the company to stimulate job creation.
Highlights of the ADP Report for October include:
Private sector employment increased by 43,000
Employment in the service-providing sector rose 77,000
Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 34,000
Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 12,000
Construction employment declined 23,000
Large businesses with 500 or more workers declined 2,000
Medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers increased 24,000
Employment among small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, increased 21,000
Overview of Numbers
The 45,000 jobs created by the SME sectors reverses a decline from September and offsets the 2,000 job cuts by large companies. The strong growth of service sector jobs is a positive development. However the continued softness of goods producing segments and manufacturing continues to indicate the continued decline of US industrial capacity. The strong rebound in services may be the result of the expanding practice of companies utilizing outside contractors to fill human capital requirements. These types of jobs may mask an underemployed and transient labor pool forced to accept work at lower wage scales.
The stock market continues to perform well. Yesterdays QE2 initiative by the Fed to pump $600 billion into the banking system may allay bankers credit risk concerns and ease lending restrictions to capital starved SME’s. Despite a projected GDP growth rate of 2%, ADP’s employment figures indicates that the economy continues to dwell at the bottom of an extreme down economic cycle. The danger of a double dip recession still lurks as a remote possibility. Interest rates remain at historic lows and inflation continues to be benign but its danger grows as a weak dollar continues to flounder forcing oil prices to climb while government debt levels continue to spiral upward. The balance sheets of large corporate entities remain flush with cash. Analysts estimate that over $1 Trillion in cash swells corporate treasuries remaining underemployed on lazy corporate balance sheets. The low interest rate environment has allowed companies to pursue deleveraging strategies considerably strengthening the capital structure of corporate America. To the dismay of politicians and the unemployed, economists speculate that deployment of this cash is still a few quarters away from finding its way into the real economy.
Solutions from Sum2
Sum2 offers SME’s the Profit|Optimizer to help them manage risk, devise recovery strategies and make better informed capital allocation decisions.
For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.
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Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, SME
Sum2′s Hamilton Plan Getting Scholarly Attention
The following research paper on The Hamilton Plan was written by Deepak Verma, a business student at Baruch College. To our knowledge it is the first scholarly research that incorporates the Hamilton Plans theme of a focus on SME manufacturing.
ISSUES MANAGEMENT PROJECT
Prof. Michael Kirk Stauffer
DEEPAK VERMA
The Societal and Governmental Environment of Business
Baruch College, the City University of New York
December 16, 2009
Table of Content
Topic Page No
1. Executive Summary 2
2. The Issue: Shrinking Manufacturing Base 3-4
3. The Origin of the Issue and Solution 4-5
4. Small & Medium Enterprises; Catalyst of Sustainable Growth 6
5. Initiative for Development of SMEs 7-8
6. Future of SME and SMEs in USA 9
7. Appendix : References 10
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Living beyond means is not sustainable. One of the primary reasons of prolonged Economic and Credit Crisis in United States is its low manufacturing base and American way of consuming more than what is produced. This research paper will examine issue of shrinking manufacturing base of USA, unfair and unethical business practices adopted by countries such as China to boost export thereby causing trade deficit to USA, reasons for low manufacturing base and role of small and medium enterprise (SME) manufacturers in developing a sustainable manufacturing base of the US economy.
Prior to coming at Baruch College for pursuing MBA in finance and investments, I worked for over 10 years with Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI), an apex financial institution of India engaged in the development and financing of SMEs and micro financial institutions. Having worked with this financial institution, I realized the importance of SMEs in bringing sustainable economic development and employment creation, particularly in a mixed economy like India.
The paper will discuss on public-private initiative in USA for development of SMEs, their efforts and capital investment for empowerment and financing of SMEs. Various initiatives taken by private and public sector will be analyzed. Efforts have been made to forecast future of SMEs vis a vis manufacturing sector, role of community development financial institutions (CDFIs), and flow of commercial bank credit and private equity investment in SMEs in the United States.
THE ISSUE: SHRINKING MANUFACTURING BASE
Why should shrinking manufacturing base be an issue in a market driven service oriented economy like US? Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated on Feb. 28, 2007, “I would say that our economy needs machines and new factories and new buildings and so forth in order for us to have a strong and growing economy.” Strong Manufacturing base is the only solution to rising trade deficit and industrial job loss. Manufacturing promotes innovation which leads to investments in equipment and people, research and development, improved products and processes and increase in productivity and higher standards of living. Increase in manufacturing leads to increase in demand for raw materials and other commercial services.
United States has transitioned from an agricultural economy to Industrial economy to a service economy. Over a period of this transition US has lost its manufacturing base substantially and has been importing goods from around the world which has resulted into huge trade deficit and industrial job losses. IMF has categorized the US current account deficit as unsustainable. Warren Buffet also once commented “The U.S trade deficit is a bigger threat to the domestic economy than either the federal budget deficit or consumer debt and could lead to political turmoil… Right now, the rest of the world owns $3 trillion more of us than we own of them.”
Since the United States joined the WTO, US trade deficit has risen from $150.6 billion in 1994 to $817.3 billion in 2006. US reliance on imports ranges from electronic items to apparels and other consumables. For example, electronic items sold in United States are developed by companies such as Philips, Toshiba, Sony, Hitachi, Samsung and Sharp. We have lost significant market share in Auto Industry also. Toyota has surpassed General Motors to become leading auto manufacturer in terms of global sales. Ironically, items such as clothing and apparel where USA had its dominance are also being imported from foreign countries. Over 90 percent of clothing and shoes sold in the United States are made in foreign countries. US economy has thrived on consumerism which has led to increase in demand for goods over the years but production of domestically manufactured goods has been declining, thereby giving rise to imports from foreign countries and loss of industrial jobs.
Critics of the argument say it is the increase in production efficiencies, resulted from technological innovation and advancement that has resulted in loss of jobs. Additionally, it is the increase in consumption which is the root cause of import deficit rather than shrinking manufacturing base. Undoubtedly long term data indicates an increase in US manufacturing, but the way we are loosing our manufacturing share from last 2 decades and if we continue shrinking, we will soon have no choice but to consume whatever is dumped in our market and will be on the mercy of foreign imported goods. Increase in manufacturing has not kept pace with global growth in manufacturing in USA. Since 2000 global manufacturing growth has been 47%, whereas USA has recorded a growth rate of only 19%.
ORIGIN OF THE ISSUE & SOLUTION
What is causing shrinking manufacturing base in the United States? Is it purely competitive and cheaper products manufactured in Asia and Europe or some other factors are also responsible? Undoubtedly competitive global business environment has severely affected domestic production in the United States, this crisis in large arises due to unfair and unethical business practices adopted by its trading partners mainly China. Some of those practices are significant government subsidies, currency manipulation, large-scale dumping in the U.S. market, and other market-distorting practices. Additionally, unfavorable govt. policies, tax structure, increase in cost involved in healthcare, litigation, and regulation has significantly affected the bottom line. Increase in cost and strict regulation forced manufacturing units to move their facilities to other countries where companies do not face those kinds of impediments. Companies operating in the U.S. started outsourcing low-value tasks like simple assembly or circuit-board stuffing, but lower cost of outsourcing and shrinking margin lured them to continue outsourcing sophisticated engineering and manufacturing capabilities that are crucial for innovation in a wide range of products. As a result, the U.S. has lost or is in the process of losing the knowledge, skilled people, and supplier infrastructure needed to manufacture many of the cutting-edge products it invented.
Is there any way to bring back our manufacturing base?
The view that the U.S. should focus on R&D and services is completely flawed. Manufacturing is part of the innovation process and United States has to expand its manufacturing base to remain a world leader.
Following may be suggested to address the issue:
(1) Increase the tariffs on foreign goods so that they are more expensive than domestic goods.
(2) Demand the same level of quality in all foreign goods as American goods.
(3) Diplomatic measures should be taken to create pressure on foreign countries particularly China to stop manipulating their currencies.
Efforts should be made to open up foreign consumption markets adequately to U.S. producers so as to increase export and minimize trade deficit and should endeavor to combat predatory foreign trade practices aimed at undermining U.S. producers in their home market. Next big step is to promote small and medium enterprises to set-up manufacturing units.
SMALL & MEDIUM ENTERPRISES (SMEs); CATALYST OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH
The issue of shrinking manufacturing base in the United States has been discussed by economist, policymakers, industrialists, and think tanks since economic integration and various measures to improve domestic manufacturing base have been suggested. But considering our free market dominance no sincere efforts were made to expand manufacturing base. Alarming rise in trade deficit and current economic and credit crisis which resulted in to massive industrial job loss has called for immediate intervention of private-public participation to protect and develop domestic manufacturing base for long term sustainable economic growth of United States. It is this time only that the role of SME manufacturers was felt inevitable to address this alarming issue.
President Obama during an interview said “We’ve got to make sure that we’re cultivating small businesses and entrepreneurs who are going to be driving employment growth,” the President said, “so that 20 years from now we can look back and we can say, ‘This was the pivot point, this is where we started to turn the corner.”
US need to change course at this point of time and need to develop a network of small and medium enterprises focusing on cleaner and green technology. The U.S. can explore strategies used in emerging markets for development of SMEs. According to Hau L. Lee, a professor at Stanford Graduate School of Business, “America needs large industrial zones devoted to specific industries–similar to zones in Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, and much of China. Such areas offer tax breaks, cheap or free land, workforce training, plenty of water and power, and agencies that serve as one-stop shops for all of the necessary permits and regulatory approvals.” A national level specialized financial institution may be created to provide low cost credit to newly setup SMEs in the manufacturing sector. US strength lies in high end technology, innovation, R&D, robust infrastructure, and know-how.
INITIATIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SMEs
US govt. runs a number of programs for providing technological know-how, contracting opportunities, counseling and assistance, financing, and R&D facilities to small and medium enterprises. Some of the prominent programs run by US department of commerce are Manufacturing Extension Program, Advanced Technology Program, Technology Transfer, and Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Program. State govt. and number of govt. agencies are deployed for implementation of these schemes across the United States. SBA provides technical and financial assistance to SMEs through its partner lending institutions.
On November 17, 2009 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. launched 10,000 Small Businesses — a $500 million initiative for development of 10,000 small businesses across the United States. The plan envisaged to provide greater access to business education, mentors and networks, and financial capital to small businesses. Lloyd C. Blankfein, Chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs quoted “Small businesses play a vital role in creating jobs and growth in America’s economy.” Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway also mentioned “Our recovery is dependent on hard working small business owners across America who will create the jobs that America needs. I’m proud to be a part of this innovative program which provides greater access to know-how and capital – two ingredients critical to success.”
Sum2 LLC, a firm which assists SMEs in implementing sound business practices by offering a series of programs and products, announced The Hamilton Plan on Labor Day. The Hamilton Plan is a ten point program to foster the development of manufacturing in the United States by tapping the entrepreneurial energy of small and mid-size enterprises (SME). The Hamilton Plan requires concerted focus of investment capital to fund development and establishment of an SME Development Bank (SDB) which will focus, manage and administer capital formation initiatives to incubate and develop SME manufactures.
I contacted James McCallum, CEO of Sum2llc to discuss the issue of shrinking manufacturing base and how SMEs can help in restoring manufacturing base in the United States. In response to my comment here is what he stated “It is pretty amazing that the United States has not done more to specifically encourage and address the unique needs of this critical economic driver. Many Asian countries are miles ahead of the US in SME banking and capital formation. These banks have extensive portfolios of finance products and technical assistance they provide to SME’s. The reasons that the US lacks focus in this area are many. US commitment to free market forces has badly warped our economic infrastructure. SMEs in the US have primarily relied on community banks for financing. Most of which went for real estate and construction projects. SME manufactures have just about disappeared from the economic landscape of the US. The credit crash and the economic malaise are awakening our understanding of the critical nature of SMEs and our need to manufacture products. Goldman’s 10,000 Businesses Initiative coalesces nicely with the Hamilton Plan we developed in 2008.”
USA MANUFACTURING & SMEs IN YEAR 2030
With the concerted government efforts for promotion and development of SMEs and private sector initiatives such as “10,000 Small Businesses plan” by Goldman, SMEs will be largely benefited having access to innovative financial products and services from a network of financial institutions. Ten point program suggested in Hamilton plan, if implemented, will bring cluster based development of SME manufacturers. Cleaner and green technology will drive long term sustainable growth, increase national income and result in employment creation. Healthy SMEs will be focusing on export of goods thereby reducing the trade deficit and offer a new market for commercial banking sector. High-tech growth oriented SMEs will also have access to private equity investments and will offer a new avenue of diversification to private equity industry.
But the task of SME development is a challenging task and requires strong will on the part of different stakeholders. SMEs are considered to be the riskiest segment of borrowers from a financial institution’s perspective and thus struggle for timely and adequate credit. Access to technical and market information, financial assistance and trained and educated workers is the biggest challenge for SMEs. Future SMEs require sound business practices such as corporate governance, risk management, stakeholder communications and regulatory compliance.
I believe that SMEs are sine qua non for manufacturing sector & I can foresee a bigger space for SMEs in next 20 years from now. I am so intrigued with the idea of SMEs development and their contribution in the economic growth that in the long run I wish to work as a freelancer offering consultancy and advisory services on financial and strategic matters to SMEs. I would work with a network of financial institutions, venture capitalists, engineers, environmentalists, social workers, suppliers, and policy makers so as to offer SMEs a comprehensive set of services.
APPENDIX: REFERENCES
U.S. Needs to Return to Its Manufacturing Base
http://seekingalpha.com/article/119136-u-s-needs-to-return-to-its-manufacturing-base
Securing America’s Future: The Case for a Strong Manufacturing Base, A Study by Joel Popkin and Company, Washington, D.C. June 2003, Prepared for the NAM Council of Manufacturing Associations
http://www.pmihome.org/Popkin_Study_3-03.pdf
President predicts it will take decades to revive declining U.S. manufacturing base?
Manufacturing & Investment Around The World: An International Survey Of Factors Affecting Growth & Performance, ISR Publications, revised 2nd edition, 2002. ISBN 978-0-906321-25-6.
Economy Watch: Economy, Investment & Finance Report
http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/usa/export-import.html
USA Manufacturing output continues to increase (over the long run), Curious cat, Investing and economics blog
Alliance for American Manufacturers http://www.americanmanufacturing.org/issues/manufacturing/the-us-manufacturing-crisis-and-its-disproportionate-effects-on-minorities/
Can the future be built in America? http://proquest.umi.com.remote.baruch.cuny.edu/pqdweb?index=28&did=1860761601&SrchMode=1&sid=2&Fmt=3&VInst=PROD&VType=PQD&RQT=309&VName=PQD&TS=1259505905&clientId=8851
TO SAVE AMERICAN MANUFACTURING: USBIC’S PLAN FOR AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL RENEWAL BY Kevin L. Kearns, Alan Tonelson, and William Hawkins
http://americaneconomicalert.org/USBIC_Save_American_Manufacturing_Jobs_Plan.pdf
Goldman Sachs Launches 10,000 Small Businesses Initiative
http://www2.goldmansachs.com/our-firm/press/press-releases/current/10-k-business.html
Goldman Sachs as Social Entrepreneur http://sum2llc.wordpress.com/
Hamilton Plan by Sum2llc http://sum2llc.wordpress.com/2008/09/03/sme-development-bank/
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Risk: SME, manufacturing, economic revitalization, social wealth
New Day Rising: ADP Employment Report
Rising Sun Taft McWhorter
ADP has released its National Employment Report for January. Non-farm private employment decreased 22,000 during the month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The ADP report indicates that job loss is decelerating. Many believe that the massive governmental intervention to recapitalize the banking sector and stimulus programs extending unemployment benefits and the provision of funding aid to state governments are key elements that are helping to stabilize the economy.
Highlights of the ADP report include:
January’s ADP Report estimates non-farm private employment in the service-providing sector increased by 38,000, the second consecutive monthly increase.
Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 60,000, with employment in the manufacturing sector dropping 25,000.
The employment decline in the manufacturing sector was the lowest since January of 2008.
Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline by 19,000 while small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, declined 12,000.
Employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 9,000, the first increase in employment since January of 2008.
Employment in the financial services sector dropped 16,000.
Construction employment dropped 37,000. This drop marks the third straight year of consecutive monthly employment declines and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,804,000.
Sum2 advocates the establishment of an SME Bank to sustain long term economic growth.
For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.
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Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, political
Rutgers Job Study: Full Employment By 2017!
Rutgers University has released a sobering study on expected recovery rates in employment levels for the United States economy. The study, America’s New Post-Recession Employment Arithmetic indicates that the employment deficit has grown so large that it may take until 2017 for the nation’s labor market to return to its pre-recession level.
The study, released by the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy is a cause for concern. The study reports that the US economy has shed over 7 million jobs since the recession officially began in December 2007. This has reduced the total number of jobs in the United States by 5.8%, the largest drop during any downturn since World War II. The authors of the study, James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca, project that the employment deficit will total 9.4 million private sector jobs by the end of the year.
The study estimates that if the economy adds more than 2 million jobs annually starting next year, it would take until August 2017 – more than seven and a half years – to both recover the jobs lost since December 2007 and create new positions for the roughly 1.3 million people who join the labor force each year.
Hughes and Seneca believe that a recovery in 2017 may be an optimistic assumption. An economic expansion that lasts for seven years is about 50 percent longer than the average for postwar recoveries. Hughes and Seneca refer to the last ten years as “The Lost Employment Decade,” because the U.S. is on track to finish this year with 1.3 million fewer total jobs than it had in December 1999. “This is the first time since the Great Depression of the 1930s that America will have an absolute loss of jobs over the course of a decade” the report states.
The past decade has witnessed a startling reversal in economic fortunes for the US economy. The U.S. finished the 1990s with 19 million more private sector jobs than it had at the start of the decade. Approximately 16 million jobs were created during the 1980s. Before the recession, annual rate of job growth was about 1 million jobs per year, about half of the growth rates of the previous two decades.
Hughes and Seneca believe that this will force states into fierce competition to realize job growth. States must respond by creating desirable environment for business based on costs, affordability, business climates, support infrastructure, labor force quality and tax policies.
We believe that joblessness and unemployment continue as significant threats to economic growth. The conception of the unemployment rate as a lagging indicator is emerging as a lead driver inhibiting economic recovery. High unemployment continues to inhibit consumer spending and works against a rebound in the housing market and related construction industries. Retailers are already bemoaning the bleak forecast for this years holiday shopping season. State and local governments reeling from dwindling tax receipts are beginning to crack under the strain to fund basic community services, public schools and social assistance programs.
The structural dysfunction of the American economy is a critical issue that must be addressed. A concerted program aimed at the development and incubation of SME manufactures will encourage the entrepreneurial energy and kick start badly needed economic drivers to ignite a recovery. Sum2 advocates the adoption of The Hamilton Plan and the creation of an SME Development Bank to reestablish sustainable growth and national prosperity.
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(RU and Bruce, Perfect Together)
Risk: unemployment, job creation, SME, political stability, recession,
ADP Reports 250,000 More Jobs Lost in September
ADP has released its National Employment Report for September Nonfarm private employment decreased 254,000 during the month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The ADP report indicates that job loss continues to decelerate. Though slowing, the unemployment rate continues to creep higher. The impact of the loss of a quarter of a million jobs is an indication that economic recovery remains sluggish and the US has a long way to go before the benefits of wide spread sustainable growth are realized.
The evaporation of jobs will continue to hinder a broad recovery in the housing market. Yesterday I heard a speaker claim that approximately 25% of homes in Florida are in foreclosure or are behind in their mortgage payments. It is an incredible statistic that speaks volumes about the acute systemic problems of the service based, boom/bust Florida economy.
Highlights of the ADP report include:
Employment from July to August was revised from a decline of 298,000 to a decline of 277,000
September’s employment decline was the smallest since July of 2008
Employment losses have diminished significantly over the last two quarters
Nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 103,000
Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 151,000
Employment in the manufacturing sector dropped 74,000
Employment with large businesses with 500 or more workers declined by 61,000
Employment with medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 93,000
Employment among small-size businesses with fewer than 50 workers, declined 100,000
Employment losses among small-size businesses have diminished in each of the last six months
Construction employment dropped 73,000. This was its thirty-second consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,632,000.
Employment in the financial services sector dropped 19,000, the twenty-second consecutive monthly decline.
Sum2 advocates the establishment of an SME Bank adoption of The Hamilton Plan to address the recession.
For information on the construction and use of the ADP Report, please visit the methodology section of the ADP National Employment Report website.
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Risk: unemployment, recession, recovery, political
Banking is Getting Expensive
The severity of the banking crisis is evident in the 95 banks the FDIC has closed during 2009. The inordinate amount of bank failures has placed a significant strain on the FDIC insurance fund. The FDIC insurance fund protects bank customers from losing their deposits when the FDIC closes an insolvent bank.
The depletion of the FDIC Insurance fund is accelerating at an alarming rate. At the close of the first quarter, the FDIC bank rescue fund had a balance of $13 billion. Since that time three major bank failures, BankUnited Financial Corp, Colonial BancGroup and Guaranty Financial Group depleted the fund by almost $11 billion. In addition to these three large failures over 50 banks have been closed during the past six months. Total assets in the fund are at its lowest level since the close of the S&L Crisis in 1992. Bank analysts research suggests that FDIC may require $100 billion from the insurance fund to cover the expense of an additional 150 to 200 bank failures they estimate will occur through 2013. This will require massive capital infusions into the FDIC insurance fund. The FDIC’s goal of maintaining confidence in functioning credit markets and a sound banking system may yet face its sternest test.
FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair is considering a number of options to recapitalize the fund. The US Treasury has a $100 billion line of credit available to the fund. Ms. Bair is also considering a special assessment on bank capital and may ask banks to prepay FDIC premiums through 2012. The prepay option would raise about $45 billion. The FDIC is also exploring capital infusions from foreign banking institutions, Sovereign Wealth Funds and traditional private equity channels.
Requiring banks to prepay its FDIC insurance premiums will drain economic capital from the industry. The removal of $45 billion dollars may not seem like a large amount but it is a considerable amount of capital that banks will need to withdraw from the credit markets with the prepay option. Think of the impact a targeted lending program of $45 billion to SME’s could achieve to incubate and restore economic growth. Sum2 advocates the establishment of an SME Development Bank to encourage capital formation for SMEs to achieve economic growth.
Adding stress to the industry, banks remain obligated to repay TARP funds they received when the program was enacted last year. To date only a fraction of TARP funds have been repaid. Banks also remain under enormous pressure to curtail overdraft, late payment fees and reduce usurious credit card interest rates. All these factors will place added pressures on banks financial performance. Though historic low interest rates and cost of capital will help to buttress bank profitability, high write offs for bad debt, lower fee income and decreased loan origination will test the patience of bank shareholders. Management will surely respond with a new pallet of transaction and penalty fees to maintain a positive P&L statement. Its like a double taxation for citizens. Consumers saddled with additional tax liabilities to maintain a solvent banking system will also incur higher fees by their banks so they can repay the loans extended by the US Treasury to assure a well functioning financial system for the republic’s citizenry.
Risk: bank failures, regulatory, profitability, political, recession, economic recovery, SME
Unemployment Driving SME Bankruptcies
Two news items concerning the health of of the United States economy crossed my desk today. This morning ADP published its monthly National Employment Report for June. ADP announced that nonfarm private employment decreased 473,000 from May to June 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis. Monthly employment losses in April, May, and June averaged 492,000. That equates to over 1.5 million jobs that were lost over the past 90 days.
The trend indicates that the rate of job losses is slowing; but the massive evaporation of jobs represents a serious erosion in buying power. The United States is a highly developed consumer oriented economy that is highly dependent on the discretionary buying power of consumers. Significant loss of jobs and the severe contraction of credit availability are severe headwinds that the US economy must overcome.
In recent years US job growth was fueled by small and mid-size enterprises (SME). Home based companies, specialty retailers and service oriented companies has fueled economic expansion and job growth. No more. The trend has been decidedly reversed due to the evaporation of consumer buying power, credit and capital constraints and other macroeconomic factors that conspire against the limited balance sheets of SMEs.
The USA Today reports, “The first five months of this year have shown a 52% increase in the total number of commercial bankruptcy filings (36,106) compared with the same period last year (23,829), according to the Automated Access to Court Electronic Records. On average thus far in 2009, some 350 commercial enterprises file for bankruptcy daily — an increase of 240% from 2006.”
The two attributes that distinguish the US economic colossus are the work ethic of its people and a deep abiding commitment and belief in a entrepreneurial culture that rewards hard work and risk. It would seem that these two virtues are under siege and are being stressed to a breaking point due to the depth and pervasiveness of the global recession. One thing is clear, the indomitable spirit of the American people are being put to the test. In time this great nation of great people will rise to meet and surmount the challenges posed by this great recession. It remains to be seen however how this will change the spirit and character of the American psyche and how future generations of countrymen will view the generations that left them with a debt laden legacy.
You Tube Music Video: George Gershwin, Three Preludes, #2
Risk: work ethic, entrepreneurial spirit, economic recovery, depression
Corporate Extinctions
A large meteor that hit the Yucatan peninsula 65 million years ago is considered one of the causal factors that led to the mass extinction of the dinosaurs. The theory gained wide acceptance after a photogemmetric satellite captured the image of the Chicxulub Crater centered just off the peninsulas northeast shore. The meteor theory seemed to solve the dinosaur extinction mystery of how a dominant species that ruled the earth for 200 million years can suddenly disappear. Apparently the theory suggests that the extinction happened more with a bang then a whimper.
Like the Chicxulub meteor, the economic crash of 2008 promises to claim a dramatic toll of corporate victims and drastically alter the landscape of the global capitalist system. The casualty list prominently includes some marquis corporate banking brands like Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, WAMU, Wachovia, Fannie, Freddie, Fortis, RBS, NorthernRock and threatens to claim the solvent souls of a UBS or Citibank. The State of California and the Sovereign State of Iceland are also endangered and the economic crisis may claim them as its biggest prize.
Hedge funds are quickly folding up shop. Morgan Stanley estimates that the AUM of the industry may shrink from $1.9tr to $900bn due to market losses and investor redemption and withdrawals. At its peak the global hedge fund industry was estimated to offer AIM products by over 6000 providers. By the close of the next year the size of the industry will be considerably smaller as capacity downsizes to serve less demand. Downsizing will also be the prevailing theme for community banks, RIA’s and CTA’s as excess capacity is worked out of the system through closures, consolidations and seizures. This contraction will effect industry service providers that sell services to the financial services market. Lawyers, accountants, IT providers and consultants will be hard pressed to maintain their book of business as the market for their services contracts.
Free marketeers and Social Darwinists may find it right and fitting that the financial services industry comprises the bulk of the corporate casualty list due to their culpability in nurturing this economic apocalypse and their proximity to the epicenter of the crash. The Hollow Men who led the US economic colossus to this dramatic self immolation however won’t have to fall on their swords. Their champion in the Treasury Mr. Paulson has swaddled them in a protective TARP so these masters of the universe can don superman capes to continue their selfless endeavor of saving the US economy from a total collapse.
Unfortunately the deadly meteor that almost liquidated the banking system is spreading outward to what some refer to as the real economy. Goldman Sachs’ indicates that the recession will shave a cool $1.3tr from the GDP. This will inhibit buying power by individuals, corporations and governments. Some economists fear that this will create enormous deflationary pressure prolonging the recession. Many see similarities with the Japanese recession of the 1980′s. That recession brought on by the burst of Godzilla sized real estate and equity market bubbles lasted for over a decade. Japanese central bankers cut interest rates to almost zero and the vicious downward spiral of the economy recovered as a result of SE Asian and North American market demand drivers that fueled tremendous export growth.
Retail is another sector that will be particularly hit hard by corporate failures. Industry statistics indicate that 14,000 retailers are expected to close their doors during the next year. US auto dealerships from the Big Three are expected to contract by 25%. The auto industry is a major hub of a large and intricate manufacturing supply chain and as such this sector will be hit hard with business closures as well. Construction, housing and domestic oriented leisure industries will continue to stagnate as the American consumer buying power evaporates. Not good news for an economy so strongly dependent on consumer spending.
Yesterday the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that the economy went into a recession in December 2007. Its a bit funny that it took a year for the NBER to hear, feel and detect the Chicxulub Meteor that crashed into our economy. Today’s Employment Report from ADP indicates that the US economy shed another 250,000 jobs during the month of November. Now that the reality of the recession is upon us the corporate endangered species list will be a pressing problem and success metric that the Obama Administration will need to squarely address with any stimulus package he plans to enact to get the economy moving again. This actually bodes well for the passage of a rescue package for the Big Three Automakers. One thing is certain, urgent action is required or our economy will continue to go down not with a bang but with a whimper.
You tube video: Ranny Weeks and Orchestra: Out of Nowhere
Risk: recession, bankruptcy, solvency, rescue package, economic stimulus
ADP Job Report Minus 8000
Nonfarm private employment decreased 8,000 from August to September 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from July to August was revised down from a decrease of 33,000 to a decrease of 37,000.
September’s ADP National Employment Report continues to offer evidence of a weak labor market. Note that this month, the ADP Report does not reflect two special factors that might have further depressed employment in September. These are the strike of some 37,000 machinists against Boeing, and job losses related to hurricanes that struck the Gulf Coast.
This month’s employment loss was driven by the goods-producing sector which declined 72,000 during September, its twenty-second consecutive monthly decline. The manufacturing sector marked its twenty-fifth consecutive monthly decline, losing 48,000 jobs. These losses were somewhat offset by employment gains in the service-providing sector of the economy which advanced by 64,000.
Details on the ADP Report can be found here.
Music: The Silhouettes- Get A Job
Risk: unemployment, manufacturing, job loss, recession
SME Development Bank
The Hamilton Plan:
SME Development Bank (SDB)
Over the Labor Day Weekend Sum2 announced The Hamilton Plan. The Hamilton Plan is a ten point program to foster the development of manufacturing in the United States by tapping the entrepreneurial energy of small and mid-size enterprises (SME). The plan’s 10 points address sustainable business models, GRC best practices, capital formation initiatives, SME banking, labor union stakeholder empowerment, association syndication, cooperative formation, support for public education and cooperative learning.
This is an introduction to The Hamilton Plan, why it’s needed and the call for the creation of an SME Development Bank (SDB) to facilitate capital formation to achieve the goals of the program.
The Hamilton Plan, named after the first Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, proposes a ten point program to develop small and mid-size enterprise (SME) manufactures. The Hamilton Plan invites business owners and executives, industry associations, chambers of commerce, banks, capital market participants, labor unions, academia, non-profit organizations and governmental institutions to join forces in a concerted effort to support the reestablishment of the manufacturing infrastructure of the United States.
The vital national interest can be served by institutions representing business, labor, local communities and government to join together to foster optimal conditions to incubate and develop SME manufactures. SMEs are a natural strength of the US economy. SME represent largest most vibrant sector of the economy and by combining the entrepreneurial drive and creative energy of SME’s with the pressing need for innovative manufactures; America can reestablish its ascendancy as a preeminent power in the global economy. The Hamilton Plan is designed to provide incentives and encourage the formation of support clusters to develop SME manufacturing.
The Hamilton Plan: Ten Points
1. Adoption of World Business Council
Standards for Sustainable Business
2. Establish Incubators for Targeted Growth Industries
3. Adopt Sound Governance, Risk, Compliance Practices (GRC)
4. Formation of SME Development Bank / Capital Formation Initiatives
5. Partnership Lyceums for Government / Business / Academic Institutions
6. Labor Unions as Preferred Stakeholder / Association Syndication Unions
7. Establish Cooperatives for Technology / Licensing / Commodities / Energy
8. Superfund for Progressive Tax Code / Universal Health & Benefits
/ Infrastructure/ Brownfield Remediation and Reclamation
9. Expand Public Education Funding & SME COOP Program
10. Support Millennium Development Goals
Capital Formation Key to Success
The Hamilton Plan in its entirety is designed to respond to the compounding economic and political crisis that is confronting the United States. The credit crisis, energy dependence, industrial stasis, trade deficits, geo-political instabilities, aging infrastructure and climate change are the result of long term systemic problems that government and industry has failed to address effectively. The Hamilton Plan advocates the adoption of the program to squarely address these pressing issues with the full understanding that it will require the concerted cooperation of all stakeholders to assure the continued development, security and prosperity of America.
The Hamilton Plan requires concerted focus of investment capital to fund development and to make sure that assets are allocated to channels that will assure optimal returns and that equity participation of stakeholders is protected and rewarded. The establishment of an SME Development Bank (SDB) is a structured investment vehicle and corporate institution that will focus, manage and administer capital formation initiatives to incubate and develop SME manufactures.
At its core, The Hamilton Plan seeks to preserve the free flow of investment capital to finance national economic development and empower SME manufactures. The Hamilton Plan is not a substitution nor in any way seeks to supplant the American free market system. The Plan is designed to unleash, pool and focus investment capital. The Plan leverages regulatory capital, compliance and governance. The Plan seeks to achieve strategic economic goals, build wealth and prosperity in US and realize broader goals and objectives to assure sustainable economic growth, ecological balance and global competitiveness.
SME Development Bank (SDB)
The SDB would be chartered to assure that capital is deployed to meet appropriate program projects and assure effective stewardship of shareholders capital. The SDB would be the repository for economic and regulatory capital. It would maintain capital adequacy ratios in conformance with Basel II directives. The SDB would serve as a fiduciary to distribute capital through local community banking channels. SDB governance would assure that program objectives, ownership equity, credit requirements, capital allocations, shareholder rights and income distributions are made to SDB shareholders.
Government funding of the SDB would consist of share purchases financed by capital from a national development Superfund. The Superfund would receive tax receipts from a progressive national tax program, budget allocations, licensing and royalty receipts, dividend reinvestment’s and capital gains proceeds from the sale of assets.
Shareholders in the SDB would be community banks, institutional fund managers, state/local/federal government, private equity firms, business owners, company management, associations, labor unions, employees, academic institutions, non-profits organizations. Different forms of capital would be recognized and used to purchase shares in the SDB. For example, local governments can purchase shares in the SDB with tax credits or land grants or infrastructure improvement projects; labor can purchase shares with sweat equity, academic institutions with intellectual capital etc.
Securitization of SDB shares can be created to trade on public exchanges. Any secondary market listings would occur after underlying assets have been properly seasoned. Shares in the SDB would offer terms of extended time frames for investment lockup and share redemption.
Community Bankers as
Risk Managers and Distribution Conduits
Community Banks have a critical role as an SDB equity partner. The community bank is the primary channel by which equity and credit capital is provided to the SME. They are front line risk managers and advisors for portfolio companies. Community banks are astute relationship managers. Community banks understand local market conditions and can link assets and service providers to build support clusters and expanded value chains for SMEs. Community bankers will help SMEs focus on capital allocation strategies and support efforts in encourage growth and profitability. They will provide help in the following areas:
- Corporate Governance
- Risk Management
- Business Promotion, Acceleration and Development
- Corporate Advisory Services
- Information Services
- Performance Evaluation Services
Community banks will be offered regulatory capital relief through its equity participation in the SDB. Community banks will form a joint back office (JBO) to address regulatory capital requirements for its participation and share ownership in the SDB. Community banks must continue fulfill capital requirements for retail banking and other lines of business in accordance with regulatory requirements of its governing agency. State regulatory agencies relating to SME banking regulation, enforcement and inspection would conform to a unified national banking regulatory agency.
Community banks will share in the equity appreciation of the SME and any distributions, dividends or corporate actions the Board of the SDB effects. The differentiation of credit and equity capital participation will be accounted for at the SDB level. Administrators for hedge funds and other Alternative Investment Vehicles have developed sophisticated partnership and shareholding accounting capabilities that can address questions of share class ownership, tranche construction and attributes, asset valuation, distributions and returns.
The community bank in working in conjunction with the SDB will help SME’s effectively manage risk, improve stakeholder communication, implement effective corporate governance that create sustainable business practices to assure long term profitability and growth.
The Hamilton Plan lays the foundation for SMEs to seize market opportunities. SMEs in partnership with community bankers must assess products and markets, business functions and critical success factors. Sufficiently capitalized by the SDB, the SME and local bankers will execute an action plan to support the corporate mission in line with the larger goals of The Hamilton Plan to build wealth for its shareholders and assure the future prosperity of America.
Song: Average White Band: Work To Do
Risk: manufacturing, small and mid-size business, global competitiveness, middle class, national prosperity
